Thirty Years Later...

[caddyman]

I think the irony of the situation brewing in the South Atlantic is that had General Galtieri had not sent Argentinean forces into the Falklands in 1982, the islands may well have been subject to some treaty that appeased both Argentina and the Islanders by now.

I think it was reasonably clear at the time that the UK government wasn’t particularly interested in the islands other than as a staging point for the British Antarctic Territory. The only naval presence in the area was the sparsely-armed ice patrol vessel, HMS Endurance and it had been announced that even that was to be withdrawn.

Had Argentina carried on building cultural and economic links in the face of of continuing indifference from London, which was slowly forgetting the existence of the place, it is conceivable that the islanders themselves may, after the passage of years, seen some sense in voting for some new arrangement concerning the sovereignty of the islands.

By attempting to force the issue militarily, Argentina made the UK government suit up and take notice and turned the local population pretty much irrevocably against them – certainly in the foreseeable future.

Now, thirty years on, Argentina is again increasing the pressure and both sides are resorting to sabre-rattling. Of course this time there is rather more interest from London than there was in the lead up to the 1982 invasion. Both sides dress up the argument in terms of colonialism, self determination, sovereignty and so forth, but realistically at root, their interest and the dispute is over resources.

While Antarctica remains an undeveloped wilderness and will continue to be used solely for scientific research under international treaty. That said, I believe there is already pressure building from various sources, including those with only the vaguest reason to be there, to extend the remit of the Antarctic Treaties to permit at least limited exploitation of the mineral resources locked under the ice. At some point something or someone will crack and that will happen, I have no doubt.

And of course, someone has had the inestimably bad luck in finding oil in the Falklands basin. Whatever else happens, you can bet it won’t blow over quietly now.

Comments

[caddyman.livejournal.com]

I think I've misled you; I wasn't trying to suggest that there had been a policy of appeasement (none that I know of, anyway). I was suggesting that had Argentina not invaded the islands, an unenthusiastic UK government may have gone down that route.

Perhaps given its connotations, appeasement was the wrong choice of word, but you get my drift.

Anyway if they try anything now they will probably find it rather harder than in 1982.

[keith-london.livejournal.com]

I see what you mean. No, I didn't mind appeasement if it did come to that, and was accepted by all parties, including the islanders! Even at the time, I remember someone putting a price per capita of Falkland Islanders when they divided the cost of the war by number of islanders - and suggested why not pay each of them that amount - buy them off, and hand Malvinas to the enemy. However, I like to believe that Britain still has prinicples - that the islanders should be allowed self-determination - something that Argentinians don't seem to grasp.