2-1 aggregate

[caddyman]

We won the quiz again last night and sent Furtle instead of me to pick the envelope that may contain the £1,000 jackpot. It didn’t, as usual. We do not have a good record of taking our 20% chance and if there’s ever a lesson that odds have no memory, this is it. We have, over a period of 18 months, come first about 5 or 6 times and never picked the winning envelope. On average, you would expect to pick it once in every five, but we all know what averages are like, don’t we? (The average number of legs per person in the world is less than two). Still, we have another £25 tab for next week, so it’s not a complete loss!

I rather expected a flood of emails awaiting my attention this morning, after my (if I do say so myself) restrained response to accounts yesterday. So far there have been none. I can only assume that they are reeling in the face of irrefutable logic: they have been Spocked, and there’s no coming back from that.

Comments

[boredinsomniac.livejournal.com]

Odds of picking the wrong envelope 5 times in a row: .328
6 times in a row: .262

Let me know if you collect another half-dozen data points and would like me to conduct a statistical test of the hypothesis that all 5 envelopes are empty.